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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.