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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."